One Daily Minute
Timing The Next Recession
If you can predict recessions and expansions—with good timing—you can massively increase your investment returns.
Photo by Daniel Hansen
But the track record for most forecasters are pretty bad.
Majority gets it wrong.
For the average investor, and entrepreneur: don't try to time the next recession.
The economy tends to be in expansion mode majority of the time:
The bull market last far longer than a bear market.
Have a bias toward optimism:
You will have to fight the tendency to be bearish.
There’s always an argument that a recession is coming.
The market doesn’t care—and continues the bull market run.
Look for stories in the economy:
What are they telling you?
Do the clues make sense?
And do those stories make a large enough impact—to derail the current expansion.
Most people shouldn't try to time the market.
Most forecasters get the timing wrong. The few who gets it right—can't replicate their success.
Easier to spot upcoming trends—and long-term trends.
By focusing on long term trends—you can make outsize investment returns.
Look for a major story that's shaping in the economy. Majority of the time—the economy will be in a bull market. Need a major story brewing to change the course.
Great charts to focus once the stories changes:
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